![]() ![]() The new WTO forecast estimates world GDP at market exchange rates will grow by 2.8% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023 - the latter is 1.0 percentage points lower than what was previously projected. The success of the WTO's 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) in June is proof that with sufficient political will, members can cooperate and move forward together.” In addition to boosting economic growth, this would contribute to supply resilience and long-term price stability by mitigating exposure to extreme weather events and other localized disruptions. What we need is a deeper, more diversified and less concentrated base for producing goods and services. “While trade restrictions may be a tempting response to the supply vulnerabilities that have been exposed by the shocks of the past two years, a retrenchment of global supply chains would only deepen inflationary pressures, leading to slower economic growth and reduced living standards over time. Trade is a vital tool for enhancing the global supply of goods and services, as well as for lowering the cost of getting to net-zero carbon emissions,” Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. “Policymakers are confronted with unenviable choices as they try to find an optimal balance among tackling inflation, maintaining full employment, and advancing important policy goals such as transitioning to clean energy. Finally, growing import bills for fuels, food and fertilizers could lead to food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries. China continues to grapple with COVID-19 outbreaks and production disruptions paired with weak external demand. In the United States, monetary policy tightening will hit interest-sensitive spending in areas such as housing, motor vehicles and fixed investment. In Europe, high energy prices stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war will squeeze household spending and raise manufacturing costs. Import demand is expected to soften as growth slows in major economies for different reasons. For 2023, however, they foresee a 1.0% increase-down sharply from the previous estimate of 3.4%. WTO economists now predict global merchandise trade volumes will grow by 3.5% in 2022-slightly better than the 3.0% forecast in April. World trade is expected to lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023 as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy. Energy prices rose 78% year-on-year in August while food prices were up 11%, grain prices were up 15% and fertilizer prices were up 60%. ![]() dollars was up 17% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022. ![]()
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